Planetary exploration at a crossroads. On one hand, right now the pace of discovery is head-spinningly rapid. Robotic explorers are orbiting Venus, Mars, Saturn, and the Moon, with another days away from arriving at Mercury. Spacecraft heading to solar-system destinations near and far are queued for launch later this year. It's a great time to be a planetary scientist.
But there's writing on the wall, and it isn't very positive. While the Obama administration has requested $1.54 billion for NASA's solar-system activity in fiscal 2012 budget, up 11% from fiscal 2011, it'll start dropping in the years thereafter. By 2016 NASA's planet-chasers will working with only $1.25 billion.
Against this backdrop, today the National Research Council's Space Studies Board (part of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences) released an exhaustive, 400-page report that lays out a strategy for planetary exploration from 2013 to 2022. The NRC released similar assessments for astrophysics and heliophysics last year.
Although technically these "decadal surveys" assess the entire scope of a space-science discipline — NSF-funded activities, new directions for research, and which new technologies are worth developing — their real raison d'être is to decide which space missions should be A-listed for funding. And NASA counts on the panels to represent the consensus of each particular scientific community — once the rankings are made, that's pretty much it.
You have to give credit to Steven Squyres and his 15-person steering committee: since getting their marching orders two years ago, they've collectively digested 199 position papers representing the views of nearly 1,700 individuals. For purposes of manageability, the task force carved up the solar system into five domains: Mars; other terrestrial worlds (Mercury, Venus, and the Moon); giant planets; satellites; and primitive bodies (comets and asteroids).
"First and foremost, we're trying to take the pulse of the community," Squyres explains. But at the same time it's all got to fit within NASA's projected budget, and to ensure that the candidates' costs were estimated both by their proponents and by an independent aerospace contractor. "The good news is that these costs are probably realistic," he notes. "The bad news is that you're going to see some sticker shock."
NASA flies three classes of interplanetary craft: low-cost Discovery missions; moderate-cost New Frontiers missions; and uber-costly Flagship missions. Although it didn't weigh in on Discovery candidates, the panel recommends continuing this highly productive program at its current level ($500 million per year). Also reaffirmed is the decision to build the Mars Trace Gas Orbiter in partnership with the European Space Agency.
For a suitable venue to unveil the report, titled Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022, the Space Science Board chose the Lunar & Planetary Science Conference, whose 1,500 attendees have much to gain — or lose — from the panel's picks for Flagship and New Frontiers consideration. And here they are:
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The black line shows the rosy budget projection for NASA's solar-system explorations, and colored wedges indicate the funds needed for specific projects. However, in the fiscal year 2012 budget submitted to Congress by the Obama administration, interplanetary missions take a steep cut.
NASA
Against this backdrop, today the National Research Council's Space Studies Board (part of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences) released an exhaustive, 400-page report that lays out a strategy for planetary exploration from 2013 to 2022. The NRC released similar assessments for astrophysics and heliophysics last year.
Although technically these "decadal surveys" assess the entire scope of a space-science discipline — NSF-funded activities, new directions for research, and which new technologies are worth developing — their real raison d'être is to decide which space missions should be A-listed for funding. And NASA counts on the panels to represent the consensus of each particular scientific community — once the rankings are made, that's pretty much it.
You have to give credit to Steven Squyres and his 15-person steering committee: since getting their marching orders two years ago, they've collectively digested 199 position papers representing the views of nearly 1,700 individuals. For purposes of manageability, the task force carved up the solar system into five domains: Mars; other terrestrial worlds (Mercury, Venus, and the Moon); giant planets; satellites; and primitive bodies (comets and asteroids).
Click here to hear Sky & Telescope's exclusive interview with Steven Squyres, who led the Space Studies Board's Vision and Voyages assessment of NASA's proposed planetary-science missions.
S&T: J. Kelly Beatty
NASA flies three classes of interplanetary craft: low-cost Discovery missions; moderate-cost New Frontiers missions; and uber-costly Flagship missions. Although it didn't weigh in on Discovery candidates, the panel recommends continuing this highly productive program at its current level ($500 million per year). Also reaffirmed is the decision to build the Mars Trace Gas Orbiter in partnership with the European Space Agency.
For a suitable venue to unveil the report, titled Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022, the Space Science Board chose the Lunar & Planetary Science Conference, whose 1,500 attendees have much to gain — or lose — from the panel's picks for Flagship and New Frontiers consideration. And here they are:
With an estimated price tag of $4.7 billion, the proposed Jupiter Europa Orbiter is ranked highly important by planetary scientists but probably too expensive for NASA to undertake within the next decade.
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